Today, 14 May, 07:00 IST / CHANAKYA

Risk-On

Score 67/100|VIX 12.84|FII 5d +428 Cr

Tape favours risk. FII rolling 5-day net positive at four-thousand-two-hundred crore. IndiaVIX at 12.8 sits below 90-day median, term structure normal-contango. RBI MPC three weeks out, no surprise priced. The setup wants longs in Banks and PSU Banks; IT is the hedge funded by short rallies. Pre-policy options sellers earn their bread for two more weeks. The Reflexivity-Divergence flag is amber: midcap breadth widening into expensive earnings is the only line item I am watching.

Gate State

OPEN

Multiplier 1.0x

Portfolio Heat

5.4%

5.4% of 6% ceiling

Kill Switch

OPEN

Next Event

F&O Weekly Expiry

HIGH IMPACT

--d --h --m

22 MayF&O Weekly ExpiryHIGH
30 MayQ4 GDP PrintHIGH
06 JunRBI MPC DecisionHIGH
12 JunFed FOMC StatementMED

Today's Picks

Swing Tactical, hold 3 to 10 days.

Z KETKAR'S VERDICT

RELIANCELONGS1

CONV.

Long RELIANCE 2,680.00 to 2,700.00, SL 2,632.00, T1 2,752.00, T2 2,810.00, T3 2,880.00. 4d hold.

Conviction 0.74. Size ₹ 1.20 L (₹ 40.0 K risk).

Entry2,680.00-2,700.00

Stop2,632.00

Targets2,752.00/2,810.00/2,880.00

Hold4d

Why

01Composite Z Strong
02Sector Relative Positive
03Ketkar Analog Match
04Vsa Stage 4

Kill

IV rank reverts above 50, or FII rolling 5d net flow turns negative.

Council vote

KETRAJCHAGUPRATPANRUDNACABHVYO

Options Wrapper (NACHIKETA)

Short 2680 PE plus Long 2580 PE, expiry 2026-05-22.

Max-loss ₹ 14,000. Theta ₹ 1,200 per day.

FALSIFIER PASSQWEN 235B / KILL PANELEXPAND

Strongest counter: oil tape weakening if Brent breaks 79. Tested: Brent 81.06, 5-day delta plus 1.2 percent. KETKAR cross-decade analog 2017-Sep K=22 outperformed in 17 of 22 windows. PASS at p=0.034.

/ RAJVANSHI'S VERDICT

HDFCBANKLONGS1

CONV.

Long HDFCBANK 1,632.00 to 1,644.00, SL 1,588.00, T1 1,690.00, T2 1,718.00, T3 1,762.00. 6d hold.

Conviction 0.68. Size ₹ 90.0 K (₹ 28.0 K risk).

Entry1,632.00-1,644.00

Stop1,588.00

Targets1,690.00/1,718.00/1,762.00

Hold6d

Why

01Ascending Triangle
02Mtf Aligned
03Bank Leading Quadrant
04Iv Rank Moderate

Kill

Counter: bank sector breadth has divergence at the top, AD line peaked May-09. Tested but failed to invalidate:.

Council vote

KETRAJCHAGUPRATPANRUDNACABHVYO

Options Wrapper (NACHIKETA)

1650 CE debit vertical, long 1650 short 1700, expiry 2026-05-29.

Max-loss ₹ 6,800. Theta ₹ 220 per day.

FALSIFIER FLAGQWEN 235B / KILL PANELEXPAND

Counter: bank sector breadth has divergence at the top, AD line peaked May-09. Tested but failed to invalidate: RAJVANSHI multi-timeframe alignment intact on 1h+1d, VSA stage 4 confirmed. FLAG raised to ABHIMANYU for one-notch SHRINK consideration; ABHIMANYU declined SHRINK on heat headroom.