Vol. II / Issue 137Mumbai Edition
The Ghatak Desk
घातकMotilal F&O Research, Bombay
  
NIFTY 5022,512.40+0.32%BANKNIFTY48,168.10+0.58%INDIA VIX12.84-2.18%USDINR83.42-0.11%BRENT81.06+0.74%DXY104.18+0.06%GOLD MCX74,210+0.42%GIFT NIFTY22,538+0.28%FII NET 5D+4,280 Cr0.00%NIFTY 5022,512.40+0.32%BANKNIFTY48,168.10+0.58%INDIA VIX12.84-2.18%USDINR83.42-0.11%BRENT81.06+0.74%DXY104.18+0.06%GOLD MCX74,210+0.42%GIFT NIFTY22,538+0.28%FII NET 5D+4,280 Cr0.00%EXPIRY THU IN d h m
Today, 14 May, 07:00 IST / CHANAKYA

Risk-On

Score 67/100|VIX 12.84|FII 5d +428 Cr

Tape favours risk. FII rolling 5-day net positive at four-thousand-two-hundred crore. IndiaVIX at 12.8 sits below 90-day median, term structure normal-contango. RBI MPC three weeks out, no surprise priced. The setup wants longs in Banks and PSU Banks; IT is the hedge funded by short rallies. Pre-policy options sellers earn their bread for two more weeks. The Reflexivity-Divergence flag is amber: midcap breadth widening into expensive earnings is the only line item I am watching.

Gate State
OPEN

Multiplier 1.0x

Portfolio Heat
5.4%

5.4% of 6% ceiling

Kill Switch
OPEN
Next Event

F&O Weekly Expiry

HIGH IMPACT

--d --h --m

  • 22 MayF&O Weekly ExpiryHIGH
  • 30 MayQ4 GDP PrintHIGH
  • 06 JunRBI MPC DecisionHIGH
  • 12 JunFed FOMC StatementMED
Pre-monsoon / PANCHANG

Monsoon onset window opens in 16 days. FMCG and agri tilt activates next week, conditioned on IMD nowcast.

IMD STATUS / NORMAL / +2.4% LPA forecast
CHANAKYA / Daily Cable

The directional bias for 14 May 2026

Tape favours risk. FII rolling 5-day net positive at four-thousand-two-hundred crore. IndiaVIX at 12.8 sits below 90-day median, term structure normal-contango. RBI MPC three weeks out, no surprise priced. The setup wants longs in Banks and PSU Banks; IT is the hedge funded by short rallies. Pre-policy options sellers earn their bread for two more weeks. The Reflexivity-Divergence flag is amber: midcap breadth widening into expensive earnings is the only line item I am watching.

DIRECTIONAL BIAS

Banks bid, IT offered, midcap participation widening.

VIX Term Structure
11.012.013.014.0Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01IV
Front 11.20 / 30D 13.10 / 90D 13.90. Contango slope 24.1%.
RATHOD / Sector Tilt Today
BANK0.32PSU BANK0.18FIN SERVICES0.21AUTO0.11IT-0.14METAL0.08PHARMA0.03REALTY0.09ENERGY-0.06
USD INR

83.42

₹/$
DXY

104.18

idx
Brent

81.06

$/bbl
FII Net 5d

+428 Cr

The Mahurat Calendar

Next 5 scheduled market events

HIGH IMPACT

F&O Weekly Expiry

15 May, 15:30 IST

HIGH IMPACT

F&O Weekly Expiry

22 May, 15:30 IST

HIGH IMPACT

Q4 GDP Print

30 May, 05:00 IST

HIGH IMPACT

RBI MPC Decision

06 Jun, 10:00 IST

MED IMPACT

Fed FOMC Statement

12 Jun, 17:30 IST